The course is full. Here is syllabus with instructions. Complete raw codes (Markdown and R) and materials see the course's GitHub repository.

# DAY 1

Introduction: Course contents, pros and cons of Bayes, necessary skills.

Normal distribution: Introducing likelihood on the Normal example.

Poisson distribution: Likelihood maximization. Probability mass function. AIC and deviance.

The Bayesian way and the principle of MCMC sampling.

Simplest model in JAGS: Estimating lambda parameter of a simple Poisson model.

Bayesian resources: Overview of software, books and on-line resources.

# DAY 2

t-test: First model with 'effects', hypotheses testing, derived variables.

Linear regression part 1: Traditional GLM, MLE, and manual estimation.

Linear regression part 2: Bayesian version in JAGS, credible and prediction intervals.

ANOVA part 1: Model definition.

ANOVA part 2: Fixed vs. random-effect. Effect of small sample, shrinkage.

# DAY 3

Site occupancy model: logistic regression, imperfect observation, latent variables.

Useful probability distributions (binomial, beta, gamma, multivariate normal, negative binomial).

Publishing Bayesian papers.

Concluding remarks.

# LITERATURE

### Introductory books

- Kéry (2010)
*Introduction to WinBUGS for Ecologists*. Academic Press. - Bolker (2008)
*Ecological Models and Data in R*. Princeton Univ. Press. - McCarthy (2007)
*Bayesian Methods for Ecology*. Cambridge Univ. Press. - Gelman & Hill (2006)
*Data analysis using regression and multilevel/hierarchical models*. Cambridge.

### Thicker or more technical reading

- Lunn et al. (2013)
*The BUGS book: A practical Introduction to Bayesian Analysis*. CRC press. - Gelman et al. (2004)
*Bayesian Data Analysis*. Chapman & Hall. - Kruschke (2014)
*Doing Bayesian Data Analysis*. Academic Press.

### Ecological models

- Clark (2007)
*Models for ecological data*. Princeton. - Kéry & Royle (2015)
*Applied hierarchical modelling in ecology*. Academic Press. - Royle & Dorazio (2009)
*Hierarchical modeling and inference in ecology*. Academic Press.

### Manuals & software

- Plummer (2012) JAGS Version 3.3.0 user manual.
- Stan Modelling Language -- User's guide and reference manual (2016)
- OpenBUGS documentation.
- CRAN Task View on Bayesian Inferenec